How To Find Good Deals As The Buyers Market Comes To An End
At some point in their lives, every home buyer in America has wondered “Is now the best time to buy a home?” In this 3-minute video, NBC’s The Today Show does a good job of answering the question.
The conclusion? Yes, but not if you’re going to overpay.
The Buyers Market is ending, we learn, as home prices rise across most of the country. Pockets of opportunity remain, however, and the focused home buyer can still find a “good deal”.
Some of the video’s tips include:
- On what types of homes can you get the best prices
- What you can learn from looking in a seller’s closet
- How to identify a desperate seller
The piece also goes negative on short sales, noting the amount of time required to buy one. Short sales typically do take longer to close versus a “traditional” purchase, but that doesn’t mean they should be avoided.
There’s plenty of bargains in the short sale arena, too.
What The Media Missed In September’s New Home Sales Report
Some days, newspaper headlines are a terrible place to get your real estate news.
Today is one of those days.
After the September New Home Sales report showed sales volume down from August, the mainstream media jumped on the story:
- New Home Sales fall a surprising 3.6%
- Surprise Drop In New Home Sales
- Stocks slide as New Home Sales fall
But the headlines miss the point, somewhat. Yes, home sales volume is important to housing, but it’s not as important as home supply.
A deeper look at the New Home Sales data reveals an interesting comparison point:
- New home sales volume fell 3.6%
- The number of new homes available for sale fell 3.8%
In other words, sales outpaced supply — a running theme this year and a positive signal for housing.
Since peaking in January 2009, the supply of newly-built homes has now dropped by 40 percent. The average sale price is up 15% over the same period.
This is why you can’t get your real estate news from the headlines. You have to dig a little bit deeper to get the real story.
September’s New Home Sales report was plenty strong. The housing market recovery continues.
Mortgage Applications & Current Interest Rates
Mortgage applications fell again last week as average 30-year rates held relatively flat at 5.00%. Refinancing activity was much higher back when rates were below 5.0%, which you would expect. Now, refinancing activity is at somewhat “normal levels.” Purchases, however, are sinking as well and hit their lowest level since May 2009. It seems natural though that purchase applications would sink seeing as the tax credit for first-time homebuyers is essentially over now with no time for potential buyers to get deals done before the deadline. Locally however, the $8,000 tax credit did not appear to help many buyers in the Northeast areas of Los Angeles. Even though property values are lower than in past years, an income of over $75,000 is usually required to purchase a home in this area. The latest update from Capitol Hill is that the Democrats have agreed on a tax credit proposal that would extend through next spring. The updated program would be a 10% tax credit (up to a maximum of $7,250), but would also include buyers who are not first-time homeowners and have higher incomes. Hopefully, this plan along with low interest rates would stimulate purchase activity again.
Currently the rate for the 30 year fixed is 4.875% with one point. At Northeast Financial, if you prefer not to pay a point you may be able to qualify for a “no points” loan at 5%.
To find out if you qualify I invite you to call Joe Elizondo of Northeast Financial at (323) 256-7833 or email Joe at neast-financial@sbcglobal.net
Home Values In 95% Of Case-Shiller Markets Are Improving Year-To-Year
For August, the Case-Shiller Index showed annual home values improving across 19 of 20 U.S. markets. It’s the first time in 3-plus years that the benchmark housing index has shown such strength.
According to a Case-Shiller Index spokesperson, “The rate of annual decline in home price values continues to improve.”
It’s yet another sign that housing may have already bottomed.
However, just because the Case-Shiller Index shows a stabilization in home values, that doesn’t necessarily make it true. This is because real estate happens on the local level and the Case-Shiller Index is more “national”. It tracks data in just 20 U.S. cities.
Homeowners everywhere else are unaccounted for.
Furthermore, even within the 20 tracked Case-Shiller markets, there’s no allowance for the natural sub-markets that exist. Some neighborhoods under-perform and some neighborhoods out-perform.
Case-Shiller treats them all the same.
Despite its imperfections, though, the Case-Shiller Index remains a helpful, broader measurement of U.S. real estate. Economists believe that housing led the U.S. into the recession and they believe housing will lead us out, too.
If that’s true, August’s Case-Shiller data is another step in the right direction.
Falling Home Supplies Mean More Multiple-Offer Situations For Buyers
The national housing supply fell to a 2-year low last month, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
At the current sales pace, existing home inventories would sell out in 7.8 months — 30 percent faster versus November 2008.
For a 10-month window, that’s a major housing supply reduction and it helps to explain why multiple-offer situations have been so common lately.
Moreover, the same report from NAR showed sales activity reaching its highest point since July 2007, too.
If you’re looking for evidence that the long-standing Buyers Market is ending, this month’s Existing Home Sales report might be it.
Even median sales prices — typically dragged lower by distressed and foreclosed properties — declined at its slowest pace in a year. The market may have turned a corner.
Home prices are rooted in the basic economics of supply and demand.
- When supply outweighs demand, home prices fall
- When supply lags demand, home price rise
Since March 2009, the market has been moving in the right direction. Low mortgage rates, ample housing supply and a first-time home buyer tax credit fueled buy-side demand so that home prices are now rising in many U.S. markets.
If home supplies stay on this path into 2010, expect home prices to rise even more.
What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : October 26, 2009
Mortgage markets were volatile last week, making it very difficult to shop for mortgage rates.
On most days, lenders issued multiple rate sheets with the trend putting rates higher in the morning, and lower in the afternoon.
Overall, mortgage rates were unchanged on the week. It broke a three-week streak through which mortgage rates rose.
Rates remain roughly one-half percent higher than the lows of early-October.
The biggest positive for rate shoppers last week was tame economic data — specifically concerning the Producer Price Index and the housing sector.
The Producer Price Index is an inflationary, Cost of Living-like measurement for businesses and it went negative in September. Analysts weren’t expecting that and the surprise pulled rates down an eighth.
Similarly, in housing, both the Home Price Index and Housing Starts figures were softer than expectations. These, too, tugged mortgage rates down.
At least temporarily.
We say “temporarily” because — all week long — a steadily-weakening U.S. dollar was leading mortgage rates higher.
All things equal, mortgage rates rise as the dollar loses value and, last week, the dollar touched a 14-month low versus the Euro. The greenback’s weakness countered most of the “positive” news for rate shoppers and is a major reason why rates were so volatile.
The volatility should continue into this week, too. With little data and no Fed speakers, look for mortgage rates to move with the market’s momentum.
Lately, momentum has been pulling rates higher so if you’re floating a rate and trying to time a bottom, the chances are good that we already passed it. Consider locking your rate before rates rise much further.
Once rates break 6 percent, they may not come back down.
NORTHEAST LOS ANGELES REAL ESTATE MARKET STATS 10/18 – 10/25
These zip codes include the Northeast Los Angeles communities of Eagle Rock, Highland Park, Mount Washington, Glassell Park, Sycamore Grove, Garvanza, Montecito Heights, Cypress Park, Lincoln Heights, El Sereno, Monterey Hills, and Hermon.
NORTHEAST LOS ANGELES: OPEN HOUSES FOR SUNDAY OCTOBER 25
Listing of Sunday’s Open Houses from I-Tech MLS
Listing of Sunday’s Open Houses from Combined L.A. Westside MLS
Featuring Open Houses in the Los Angeles communities of Eagle Rock, Highland Park, Mount Washington, Glassell Park, Sycamore Grove, Garvanza, Montecito Heights, Cypress Park, Lincoln Heights, El Sereno, Monterey Hills, and Hermon.
Government : Home Prices Edged Lower In August
According to the government, home values edged lower last month.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s Home Price Index report shows values down by 0.3 percent from the month prior — the index’s first down month since April.
The Home Price Index is based on the value of homes financed via Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac and, in this sense, the FHFA Home Price Index is more of a “national” real estate index than its private-sector cousin, the Case-Shiller Index.
But like the Case-Shiller, the HPI is as notable for what it specifically excludes as for what it includes. Most notably, the Home Price Index doesn’t account for homes meeting any of the following descriptions:
- Is considered new construction
- Is a multi-unit property
- Is financed by an entity other than Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac
Given the resurgence of FHA financing this year, this last exclusion is especially glaring. FHA represents about one-third of all mortgage loans in 2009.
Because of these exceptions, some analysts label the Home Price Index incomplete. The same could be said of every method of home valuation, however. Case-Shiller only collects data from 20 markets, for example.
In light of these shortcomings, therefore, what’s most important is to recognize that both of the “popular” home valuation reports show similar patterns — home prices have leveled and are showing signs of a rebound.
For a region-by-region breakdown of the Home Price Index, visit the FHFA website.
As Gas Prices Rise, Mortgage Rates Are Rising, Too
With crude oil at its highest levels since October 2008, retail gas is up 8 cents per gallon this week.
It’s bad news for home buyers and mortgage rate shoppers. The same force that’s driving oil higher is linked to rising mortgage rates.
We’re talking about the weakening U.S. Dollar which is now at its worst levels versus the Euro in 15 months.
Crude oil is priced in U.S. dollars, by the barrel. When the dollar loses value, more of them are needed to buy the same barrel of oil. As a result, predictably, the price of crude oil goes up.
Now, there are other reasons why crude oil is rising, but the fading U.S. dollar is one of the major ones and it’s why we’re addressing it.
The dollar has a similar impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage bonds that — like crude oil — are also denominated in dollars. As the dollar loses value, so do mortgage bonds. This causes demand for bonds to drop and prices on bonds to fall.
Because bond prices and bond rates move in opposite directions, mortgage rates rise and this is precisely what’s happening on Wall Street today.
Since touching a 5-month low in early-October, mortgage rates have tacked on as much as 1/2 percent, depending on the product. Moreover, with the dollar showing no signs of a rebound, the upward pressure on rates should continue.
If you’re trying to time the market bottom, you may have already missed it. Consider locking your mortgage rate before rates increase even more.
And your everyday signal that rates are rising? Just check your price at the pump. If gas prices are up, it’s likely that mortgage rates are, too.